inir german counterparts, harsh personal terms. the political theatrics came as turkish president and his minister for european affairs accused germany of racism and lies. that followed president erdogan's attempt to influence upcoming elections by with dual turks citizenship not to vote for the party's currently g gerning

party. german turkish a author they regard as a threat. erdogan's provocations. who can stop him? the question we want to discuss today with our guests. it is a pleasure to welcome kurban, a columnist for turkish magazine. she says, in the absence of forces, onlyitical concerted external pressure in the form of comprehensive sanctions can potentially stop erdogan. and we are very glad to have bulent mumay with us once again. theas formerly ahead of online service at turkish's largest newspaper. he now writes for media. strong,ays erdogan's a elected leader. the only measure to stop him is the ballot box. notsure from outside is effective. it's too late. the reason is the hypocrisy of the western world. to have alangreat

posener back on the show, a the dailyr for newspaper die welt. he says turk remains -- turkey remains an essential ally but it's time to telll them they elect a bully and at the same time hope to become members european union. turkish leaders comparing their counterparts to nazis, accusing them of racism and lies. pretty strong stuff. what is going on. >> actually, of course, that started since one year ago. process.a new it's not just erdogan's last statements, as you know. it started with arresting the german journalists in turkey. it's a continuing process. the thing is, erdogan doesn't to hear any kind of criticism, so actually that was the reason that he is cutting the west and not to be a member of the e.u. and the eastis face to

instead of the west. it makes him crazy and that's kind of critics, thecially from the germany, country that has a problem with itkey, he gets angry about and chooses germany of naziism, et cetera. heard,e just german-turkish relations have been deteriorating for a while. this latest measure nonetheless a kind of escalation? are we reaching some sort of point of no return? towell, i think it's going escalate. keep going to escalate, until in germany,ections perhaps beyond, until the 2019 turkey.s in and i it's because it benefits erdogan and he's going to as he can,is as much as long as he can, because this rhetoric.t he's conveying a certain message to his constituency in turkey, he's a strong leader and

that turkey doesn't bow to europe. empty, of couourse. and it will continue unless and the germane and politicians stand up for themselves. >> so this is a tightrope act as said in your opening statement. you said turkey remains an essential partner for the west. but if you listen to this language, it hardly sounds like the alliance is functional. >> ah, no. it's difficult. put things ins perspective. i can remember when a man was italy.inister of he bashed germany, because i last -- then the twins ran poland. now it's just one of them. they bashed germany all the time. germany bashing is great, because, you know, with our set ourselves up for it. think, as far as a war of words is concerned, let's step wait. bit and

things like imprisonment -- by the way, hundreds of other much mores are important. but even there, though i'm talking about a friend of mine colleague, there is also a geopolitical aspect to this. we need turkey. who else do we have in the region? it'sing a tightrope. just pretend it's just us and turkey. it's a whole setup. there's syria to think about, russia to think about, iran to think about. somehow to restrain estranginghout turkey. >> so how that can be done is something we want to address later. look first at the levels of these tensions if that are not-- tensions that only verbal. as we've just heard, there have a number detentions of of german citizens, including the gererman journalist andnd mt recently, a german author of turkish origin, vacationing in

spain. the spanish police detained him, acting on a turkish request for that came by way of the international police agency. let's take a look. [s[speaking foreign language] >> i thought i was safe in european countries. and that the long arm of could notdogan's arrogance reach that far. >> turkey accuses h him of havig taken part in a robbery years ago. he was acquitted of the charges. but the turkish judiciaiary has rescinded thahat acquittal. the writer believes this is an attempt to silence him. his books, he writes about turkey's mass killings of as genocide, a taboo view. lived in germany for 26 years and hasas german citizenship. forl a decision is reached

his extradition, he has to remain in spain. erdogan, such as this man, are they no longer safe in europe? charges against him look trumped up. that in fact,und ththey don't stand. turkey's request looks pretty thin indeed. what's the aim? really targeting him, or are they targeting germany? little, i think it's a bit an overrated issue. people whoseot of cases are still open in turkey germany, having different citizenships. so i don't think that they aim to arrest him. he had the case in turkey. we knew that. still continuing. in the countryt and when you don't go to the justice, they sometimes search using interpoll.

i don't think that they will end it, because he wasn't the popular figure in turkey recently. a i don't think that it's critic issue. >> so that would sound like it's mistake.bureaucratic do you see it that way? >> i would doubt it. i mean, of course we don't know what's going on behind the scenes. but i don't think this is accidental, because turkish avernment is resorting to strategy they have not done before, right? that he's a german citizen of turkish origin who armenianen about the genocide is important. this is coming, again, before the elections in germany. think the regime in turkey is sending a message to both turkey and to turksy here. and they're going to keep pushing this. is of course outrageous. and the fact that he was even taken into custody in spain, i i mean, maybe they thought, okay, we have to do this, because there's an arrest warrant. find it actually

outrageous. turkey, accusations for critics about turkey, are not new. he didn't write anything new about turkey, so i don't think new issue about turkish and german relationships. >> yes. up?why do they now bring it he was acquitted in 2010. >> the spanish police were told was just acquaintance. they checked his idea. it doesn't look like a critical issue. >> regardless, obviously there's room for several points of view on this. the casedless of that, posener. one, alle alan shouldn't interpoll perhaps have acted differently, and how can abuse oft international institutions like interpoll by despotic leaders like erdogan? thatll, i presume interpoll is going to be looking way redefully at the flags go up and people are just taken off the streets from the man was.m the way this

and that's going to have to change. at the same time, there is a case for cooperating with turkey fight against terror, against drugs, so we really need turkisheration of the police, who aren't entirely in the business of suppressing their own people. they're also in the business actually of fighting crime. it's like, you know, in all these cases, you have to differentiate. i'm more worried actually, less that you might be taken off the when you're in spain or wherever. i'm more worried about the agents of mr. erdogan here in who, youfor instance, know -- if someone is visiting a by thiswhich is run organization, who will -- >> an organization which sees as aerdogan year'snd behind the last coup attempt, just for clarification. >> exactly. germany,run schools in

by the way, very good schools, though they're a shady organization. are beingle intimidated. members of this organization, a legal organization in germany, but is forbidden in turkey, used mr. erdogan.of they are being threatened with their lives. that's what you really need to about.ied erdogan has thousands of people working for him here in germany, intimidating people. >> and, of course, the case of case of a is only one detention of a german citizen. mentioned several times a german journalist has been in over six months. a german translator and a german human rights worker are all now in turkish prisosons. about a month ago, germany what had by altering been a fairly moderate approach heretofore.y the german foreign minister, who the target of much of the

rhetoric, approved the issuance warnings and also told companies that investment in could prove risky. let's see what happppened. >> i i call on n all my couountn germany, not to support these partrties. the christiaian democrats, ththe democrats, and the greens are enemieses of turkey.. >> i don't want people here t to be incited against each other from outside. we're a democratic country and we refuse to tolerate any outside interference in our democracy. apart from that, i love turkey and the turks. and mr. erdogan can change nothing about that. >> who are you to talk to the president of turkey? to turkey's foreign minister! your limits. >> and he is trying to teach us lesson? how long have you been in

politics? howlehow old are you? >> how old are you? a pretty unusual move. a head of state telling citizens how to vote.untry is this provocation largely symbolic or could it have a real election?the german there are, after all, a large number of german turkish voters in this country. how are they reacting to all of this? >> i think that's something that right? to be seen, because this whole dynamic is new. turkish citizens living abroad been granted the right to vote in these elections only in recent years. something that the turkish citizens here -- i mean, this kind of choice, they never make this choice until recent years. we will have to see. to put him injust historical context, this kind of theoric, coming from turkish government, is actually old, not new. inreminds me, for example,

the 1990's when a state minister in turkey, for example, accused three female members of the european parliament who were in turkey for a fact-finding mission on human rights, of being -- i'm using a softer of being prostitutes from europe. he said that. then in the next government, he was given another position again. we're talking about human rights 1990's.s in the a very renowned activist from germany, very active in turkey, and who was working on documentation of torture. he was declared not guilty and deported from germany. turkish government is totalitarian, has always been. look atcan also historically how europe has reacted. earlier, what you said which i do not share, but this view is very, very prevalent, of,know, this whole idea oh, we need turkey. turkey needs europe and germany than germany and turkey --

germany and europe need turkey. that, bulent mumay, how can turkey afford to alienate turkey to this degree? this direct election byommendation that wassished president -- that was issued by president erdogan is being taken seriously by the german government. >> i think it shouldn't be. like fourmore than -- million people living here from turkey. half of them, let's say, most of germans.not they don't have german passports. haveone million people passports, which is the right to vote. the people who have german more wellare much integrated to the german communities. so the people who have the right who have turkish origins, i don't think they will be so much influenced by mr. erdogan. issue is -- second issue is the turkish voters -- erdogan told them not to vote for them. let's think. spd, whoon't vote for

will gain from that? never work. so it's a pity. the third thing is, let's not vote for these three parties. let's talk about three other parties. ae party calls erdogan terrorist several times. >> the leftist party. >> liberals called erdogan -- compared erdogan, compared the coup attempt with the fire. thehe short choice is racists. they don't want the turks. so what can the turkish people for here? it's a silly offer. it won't work. understand why the german community is being crazy. >> let me ask you this, given that, it sounds like the consequences of this for the german election actually be that strong. if the rhetoriric that we're berlin -- is it

perhaps also largely intended for domestic political consumption? we do have an election coming up. >> definitely. i think that for mr. schultz, instance, the leader of the democrats, it's great to be attacked by mr. erdogan. last time he was attacked, man in ampared to a concentration camp. being attacked by foreign leaders. he's fighting a losing battle. he gets attacked. and from the same party, a he can atnister, if the same time declare, i love turkey but i'm being attacked by mr. erdogan, and be influenced by this, that's great. so i think, yes, it's a lot of -- it's more words than deeds, thank goodness. >> okay. let's say there's a general consensus here amongst the three ofyou that at least the war words is perhaps not to be taken all that seriously. also allss, you've

three made clear you do see turkey sliding towards increasing despotism and you do think something needs to be done about that. two of you saying, in your opening statements, there are measures that can be taken from outside. and you, bulent mumay, saying it's too late for external pressure. let's come now to our title question, which is who can stop provocations? and let me ask you this. we have seen this heating up of rhetoric and perhaps also of the actions. the germane chancellor h herself decided to take a stronger stand. ago, she left the course of moderation. she says she thinks there deepening ofa union with turkey. does the fact that turkey indicateretty strongly that maybe outside pressure from germany can make a difference? >> well, it's not the pressure outside. it's about finance. it's about economy.

turkish economy is unfortunately, a weak economy, recently, since 2011. when our democracy is going down, our financial system is going down too. the financial, economic sanctions from europe, of course, can harm turkey and can harm erdogan's government. the problem is it's too late for that. into power,n came 15s merkel came to turkey times and recently, in one and a visited sixshe times. and i'm sure she didn't visit her hometown six times in the half years. a the problem is today they can decide to put pressure on unfortunately it's too late. was turkey's democracy betetter ago?nd a half years it was not. and now they choose to use measures against turkey. that can harm turkey and i'm turkey, the government is afraid of that. as you know, they gave a list to interpoll accidentally, one

month ago, and turkish government accused baff as helping the turks' organizations and they complained about them. then they said, oh, that accident, it happened. so of course they're afraid of what's going on in the country, if the investments come or not. i just want to give you two small exams. let's say -- examples. thing is, erdogan has two very big, powerful media turkey.tions in produce -- the second biggesthe turkish states contract was given for wind power mills. last month, it was given. who gave it? the energy minister. that? friend of erdogan. which company won that contract? his brother, the son-in-law's won it.

and who is the partner? needs german government to be sincere. >> so given the fact that both each other, what kind of economic pressure could work whom, and do you see the political will to exact that kind of pressure? alan? >> no. and i don'n't think it would bea good idea. the point is, we have to really look back and look where we are. the point is that the west is under attack from mr. putin, from china, from terror. and in this big screa scheme of is by no means clearly on the other side. it's still more or less on our side. be careful not to alienate and push them into the enemies.ur

this is why we're between a rock and a hard place here. this is why, i think, that it's -- that economic ties with turkey are excellent. >> but in your opening statement, you said somebody to tell turkey that they can't be -- >> they can't -- fornd simultaneously look customs union, for example. >> i am in favor of custom against themust being a member of the european union, because as long as in power, and it was the case, of course, before that, they don't have the same values. have thenment doesn't same values as the european union has. own self-respect, we enough.ay enough is ms. merkel was right. going question of are we hand in hand, saying, will you member? >> they get economic support the european union for e.u.ble m membership in the

should that count? >> how much is it, 4 billion? it's not much. goes not to the government actually. >> okay. where do you stand? e.u.t's start with the >> what kind of pressure? >> let's start with the e.u. and the whole question of our values. that also means something, right? thatveryone is given status. or those who include the open copenhagen criteria. one thing to be done, and this i also, remove this again, make turkey, candidates, you know, the candidacy. that will have immediate repercussions for foreign investments in turkey, because it has a value. if we're talking about e.u. being sincere and standing up for its values, then you start, first of all. >> agree. it's not -- first of all, it's a matter of principle. even if it's $4 billion, some of goes to the turkish government, for the minister of justice, there's no rule of law

in turkey, no democracy in turkey. this whole discussion, we cannot based on the assumption that we have police thisre fighting crime so rule of law, and a government that we need to cooperate with. is an authoritarian regime. what i would say concretely, cancel all the funds that go from the e.u., for the rule of law, human rights reform, cancel turkey's status and economic sanctions. history is full of countries where economic sanctions have worked. it works. because turkey is not russia. it doesn't have natural resources. it is reliant on europe and we work.ee howow then it will i believe in that. >> bulent mumay, alan posener that if europe and/or hard,y were to push too they might push germany right over to the other side, in, for the struggle against

terrorism, in terms of also flowsting to keep migrant in check. is that a real risk, should given be more cautious the fact that europe does need turkey? >> absolutely. is being criticized more, of course not just the too, they, the public feel themselves bad. they're not -- they're becoming fond of europope. that's the huge risk. that should be done very carefully. why all steps should be sincere. >> thank you very much to all of for being with us today. and thanks to all of you for joining us. see you soon!

severine: there's soso many of you. [laughter] um, my name is severine. he gave me a few more directorships than i deserve, but we'll let the ship sail for now. um, push. i'm severine. i'm coming to you from northern new york, from the adirondacks, on lake champlain. audience: whoo, whoo! severine: that's my land, um, that i love. and i think in this room are some people who love land. [cheers anand applause]